Forecast Data Management System (FDMS+) for European Commission

FDMS+ is built to provide a secure and flexible software environment to deal with day-to-day tasks on the collection, management, analysis, forecasting, and dissemination of statistical data at the DG ECFIN.

About company

The European Commission is one of the main institutions of the European Union. It represents and upholds the interests of the EU as a whole. The Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) of the European Commission strives to improve the economic wellbeing of the citizens of the EU—through policies designed to promote sustainable economic growth, a high level of employment, stable public finances and financial stability.

https://ec.europa.eu/

European Commission

Industry

Economics

Location

Brussels, Belgium

Challenge

To ensure the smooth functioning of the Economic and Monetary Union of Europe the DG ECFIN focuses on economic surveillance, monitoring, and forecasting. To this end, it carries out a wide range of macroeconomic analytical tasks using appropriate high-quality economic and statistical indicators, produces comprehensive economic forecasts for all Member States as well as the EU’s main economic partners, and disseminates research findings relating to the ECFIN’s policy priorities.

To produce forecast data in a more efficient and secure manner, the DG ECFIN needed an enhanced solution. In response to this, Smart Analytics developed the Forecast Data Management System (FDMS+).

The automation of tasks and creation of complex consistency checks improved both the work efficiency and the reliability of the data.

Project Manager

Smart Analytics

Solution

The system based on the Foresight Platform and incorporates three main parts: Data Repository, Forecast Tool, and Dissemination Tool.

The data repository provides users at the DG ECFIN with access to the most commonly used data sources: Eurostat, macroeconomic data from national sources, IMF macro-economic statistics, ECB statistical data warehouse, and OECD Statistics. Each database in the repository is organized as a time series database to provide optimal performance when operated by the DG users. The repository also allows managing metadata directories.

The Forecast Data Management System (FDMS+) includes all the functionalities of the forecast process which takes care of data handling (e.g. integration of databases and the data repository), data output and visualization (tables, graphs and maps), data aggregation, consistency checks and validation as well as data security and reducing business continuity risks.

The current process of generating forecasts involves the following main steps:

Production of the external assumptions and their circulation;
Production of the raw forecast values by country desks;
Insertion of forecasts prepared by country teams into relevant sheets;
Transposition of the forecast values into a country‐specific transfer matrix;
Data aggregation;
Execution of consistency checks including the trade consistency exercise;
Production of graphs and tables for the final publication.

The solution consists of three technological modules:

Data Repository

Provides a single-entry point for users to retrieve data from multiple sources. It includes various sources with comparative data for countries

Forecast Tool

Supports the production of economic forecasts, including retrieval of the latest historical data and individual country forecasts

Dissemination Tool

The Web-based dissemination tool aims to enable DG ECFIN specialists to publish data for external users

Data Repository

Provides a single-entry point for users to retrieve data from multiple sources. It includes various sources with comparative data for countries

Forecast Tool

Supports the production of economic forecasts, including retrieval of the latest historical data and individual country forecasts

Dissemination Tool

The Web-based dissemination tool aims to enable DG ECFIN specialists to publish data for external users

Results

The FDMS+ solution provides controlled access to information (data, metadata, groups, and hierarchies), tools (data import tools, shared routines, reports, visualizations, models), tasks, and structured means to communicate with other users in the data areas.

This automation of day-to-day tasks and creation of complex consistency checks improved both the work efficiency and the reliability of the data at the EU’s decisions. Finally, the recent years’ forecast publications were successfully created thanks to the FDMS+ system.

Currently, Smart Analytics continues to work with the European Commission. Our experts provide support for the system, conduct annual trainings for new users, and also provide services for the development of its content and functionality (adding new data sources, importing statistical data into the repository, creating new reports, working with metadata, etc.).

100+

Users of the European Commission

4 times

A year, the Commission has published macroeconomic forecasts using FDMS+ since 2013

60+

Types of dynamic reports